Faced with the growing pressure exerted on the oceans by human activities, the FORESEA 2050 research project aims to anticipate the future of the fisheries and aquaculture sectors in France between now and 2050. By integrating forward-looking scenarios, it now offers ways of reconciling the sustainable exploitation of marine resources with adaptation to global challenges, such as climate change and changing eating habits.
By Laurie Henry et Carole Saout-Grit
Cover photo : Port of Boulogne sur Mer, France © Dugornay Olivier, Ifremer (2011). https://image.ifremer.fr/data/00555/66709/
Human activities are increasingly affecting marine ecosystems and their functioning. The distribution of fauna and flora, the movement of species and the productivity of populations are being progressively modified by human pressures, particularly fishing and climate change. So much so that scientists are predicting a global decline in the abundance of marine organisms, fishing catches and aquaculture production by the end of the century. With strong regional variations which, for the moment, are still poorly predicted by global models.
An interdisciplinary project for the future
Funded for 3 years over the period 2021-2024 as part of the OCEANS2100 call for projects from Ifremer‘s scientific management, the FORESEA 2050 project involved some forty scientists from Ifremer and French and foreign partners. Its aim was to take stock of the past and present situation of activities in the fisheries and aquaculture sectors in France, and to establish projection scenarios for the contribution of these sectors to food security in France in 2050.
The project has provided new knowledge on: the production and consumption of seafood products in France, with an inventory of the diversity of living resources and a study of changes in and motivations for their consumption; the modeling of marine ecosystems, with an inter-comparison of models and their improvement to achieve better projections; and the establishment of scenarios and projections for the evolution of hexagonal marine ecosystems and their exploitation by fishing.
The prospective scenarios were drawn up with the aim of imagining several possible trajectories for the fishing and aquaculture industries in France between now and 2050. The method used, called the morphological analysis method, was implemented to combine different hypotheses on six key variables: demographics, economy, governance, environment, science and technology, and societies.
System and key variables combined to produce prospective scenarios for the FORESEA 2050 program © M. Doray et D. Lacroix, 2024Each variable was broken down into sub-groups, with evolution hypotheses associated with each. Changes in environmental conditions, for example, were considered by integrating IPCC climate projections. These variables were then broken down into micro-scenarios exploring specific evolutions – for example, a scenario where climate policies fail, or another where technological innovations transform industries.
These micro-scenarios were then combined to produce five forward-looking macro-scenarios, each representing a possible trajectory for French fishing and aquaculture in 2050:
- Decline through inertia : current trends continue without much change, marine resources gradually decline, while demand decreases among younger generations who are more sensitive to environmental issues.
- Chaos and national withdrawal : international tensions and support for fossil fuels exacerbate inequalities and national energy dependency, production collapses and mistrust of seafood increases.
- Chosen sobriety : a global citizen’s surge enables an equitable ecological transition, marine resources are exploited sustainably in an ecosystemic approach, seafood imports are drastically reduced to enable the countries of the South to benefit from their resources.
- The technological and liberal gamble : good technological surprises (nuclear fusion and genetic innovations) and climatic surprises (the arrival of exploitable exotic species) enable us to temporarily increase the production and consumption of seafood products, but this dependence on technology creates vulnerabilities in the face of systemic crises.
- A forced transition away from fossil fuels : the growing scarcity of and conflicts over fossil fuels are forcing an abrupt transition to low-tech, low-carbon practices, while less energy-intensive and intensive fishing methods are being maintained, and extensive aquaculture is expanding.
The ability to maintain seafood production in the face of negative disruptions (e.g. Covid, conflicts…) or positive disruptions (e.g. global citizen’s surge…) was also tested within the framework of each scenario. The results show that the French seafood production system would be better able to adapt to disruptions under scenarios that limit the effects of climate change and preserve ecosystems (sobriety and zero fossil scenarios).
Think tomorrow, act today
After three years of research by a large consortium of scientists, the FORESEA 2050 project’s prospective scenarios for the future of the French fishing and aquaculture industries in 2050 have identified four priority management measures. These measures are referred to as “no-regrets”, as they would produce positive effects in reconciling sustainable exploitation of marine resources and adaptation to social and environmental changes, whatever the scenario considered:
1. Spatial planning of marine activities
One of the major findings of the project is that competition for marine space is a growing source of conflict. Coastal zones are coveted for multiple uses: fishing, aquaculture, tourism, marine renewable energies. Rigorous spatial planning is essential to minimize these conflicts while maximizing synergies between the many different maritime activities, for example by integrating aquaculture into marine renewable energy production parks.
2. Adopting an ecosystem approach to fisheries and aquaculture
Fisheries management must go beyond a population-by-population approach to take account of the ecosystem as a whole. This ecosystem-based approach requires a forum for dialogue between the various players involved, in order to draw up desirable trajectory(s) for the French fishing industry. It involves protecting juvenile fish, by setting up fishing reserves and increasing net mesh sizes.
Implementing an ecosystem-based approach to fishing means promoting actions aimed at preserving resources, protected or sensitive species and ecosystems, or reducing the carbon footprint of fisheries. Additional fishing quotas could be allocated as an incentive to multiply these virtuous actions, as is already the case under the Common Fisheries Policy.
To measure and monitor the effectiveness of an ecosystem-based approach to fisheries, it would also be necessary to have observation networks and means of modeling marine ecosystems and the human activities that take place in them, in order to evaluate and guide the trajectory of the industries.
Caramelized octopus and creamy polenta © Pavillon France3. Encouraging food transition
The scenarios highlight a general downward trend in French seafood consumption, which is currently very high, and 70% of which is met by imports. Encouraging consumption of more local and diversified seafood products would support domestic production sectors, allow southern countries to benefit from their resources, and reduce the trade deficit. Surveys into the seafood consumption motivations of the French, and in particular of younger people, confirm the existence of particular consumption behaviors of “young people” with regard to fishery and aquaculture products, with a marked interest in environmental issues and animal welfare. These motivations could become central to tomorrow’s seafood consumption.
4. Reinforcing resources for public research and innovation
Support for public research is essential if we are to meet the technological and environmental challenges facing our industry. Innovations such as fishmeal substitutes in aquaculture, or digital tools for monitoring fishing practices, can play an important role in the transition.
Research must also be participatory, enabling scientists, decision-makers and civil society to work together.
The issues involved in exploiting living marine resources transcend borders. The main mechanisms governing fishing by European vessels in the waters of southern countries, for example, are bilateral fishing agreements between Europe and these countries. The prospective scenarios of the FORESEA 2050 project integrate this international context, by considering the future of the European Common Fisheries Policy, and the termination or signing of fairer fishing agreements with southern countries.
The FORESEA 2050 project is therefore part of a broader approach to ecological transition, in line with the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The FORESEA 2050 scenarios also aim to hybridize with other foresight exercises, such as the ADEME (French Environment and Energy Management Agency) Transition(s) 2050 scenarios, or the Afterres2050 scenario, in order to propose systemic solutions to the challenges of food security, biodiversity preservation and social equity.
The results of the FORESEA 2050 project outline a roadmap for preserving tomorrow’s marine ecosystems and seafood supply in France. The sea can remain a source of nourishment, provided we take enlightened and determined political, economic and civic action today.